Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -455 SAC +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +13 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -14.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -12.3 (+0.7) | 146.0 (+35.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -11.6 (+1.4) | 143.5 (+37.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -11.8 (+1.2) | 144.4 (+36.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -12.2 (+0.8) | 145.2 (+35.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SAC 83 – 65 IDST |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IDST 83 – 66 SAC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAC 75 – 71 IDST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | IDST 68 – 40 SAC |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SAC 66 – 64 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 83.6 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#115) | -6.6 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#156) | -1.52 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#149) | -2.21 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#157) | 0.441 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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