Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SAC +200 IDST -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -8.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -7.7 (+11.7) | 131.2 (+14.8) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -8.3 (+12.3) | 130.1 (+15.9) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -7.9 (+11.9) | 132.3 (+13.7) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -7.0 (+11.0) | 132.0 (+14.0) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SAC 83 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | IDST 97 – 84 SAC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IDST 83 – 66 SAC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | IDST 68 – 40 SAC |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SAC 66 – 64 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-11 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#337) | -0.3 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#346) | -0.80 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.85 (#355) | -0.85 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.359 (#356) | 0.451 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 40.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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