Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -750 SAC +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -12.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -10.5 (+6.5) | 136.1 (+12.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -9.1 (+7.9) | 133.9 (+15.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -10.0 (+7.0) | 137.0 (+12.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -9.6 (+7.4) | 137.2 (+11.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SAC 83 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | IDST 97 – 84 SAC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAC 75 – 71 IDST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | IDST 68 – 40 SAC |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SAC 66 – 64 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-11 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#207) | -11.3 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#255) | -2.42 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#239) | -3.15 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#293) | 0.384 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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