Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -225 SAC +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +28 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -7.1 (+20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -6.1 (+21.9) | 130.7 (-22.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -4.2 (+23.8) | 127.2 (-19.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -5.0 (+23.0) | 132.0 (-24.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -4.8 (+23.2) | 132.7 (-24.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SAC 83 – 65 IDST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | IDST 97 – 84 SAC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IDST 83 – 66 SAC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAC 75 – 71 IDST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SAC 66 – 64 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 10-24 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#273) | -9.3 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#279) | -1.73 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#268) | -2.23 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#293) | 0.408 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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