Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | SAC -108 IDST -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +18 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -0.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -0.2 (+17.8) | 155.3 (-7.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -0.9 (+18.9) | 154.6 (-6.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -0.6 (+17.4) | 154.0 (-6.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -0.3 (+17.7) | 155.2 (-7.2) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | IDST 97 – 84 SAC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IDST 83 – 66 SAC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAC 75 – 71 IDST |
| Feb 9, 2024 | IDST 68 – 40 SAC |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SAC 66 – 64 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 0-16 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#274) | -3.6 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#295) | -1.06 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#281) | -1.12 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#333) | 0.449 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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