Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -625 INST +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -14.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -10.9 (-1.9) | 139.2 (+1.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -11.3 (-2.3) | 130.7 (+10.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -11.8 (-2.8) | 129.3 (+11.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -10.8 (-1.8) | 133.0 (+8.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UNI 81 – 60 INST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNI 88 – 73 INST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNI 74 – 56 INST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | INST 94 – 72 UNI |
| Jan 7, 2024 | INST 77 – 66 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#81) | -2.9 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#77) | -0.15 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#89) | -0.88 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#58) | 0.496 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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