Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | INST -350 UNI +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +22 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | INST -8.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -5.6 (+16.4) | 147.4 (+18.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -6.9 (+15.1) | 146.7 (+19.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -6.3 (+15.7) | 147.1 (+18.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -6.0 (+16.0) | 145.7 (+20.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UNI 81 – 60 INST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UNI 75 – 66 INST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNI 88 – 73 INST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNI 74 – 56 INST |
| Jan 7, 2024 | INST 77 – 66 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-4 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#36) | 4.2 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#26) | 0.95 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#32) | 1.16 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#39) | 0.556 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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