Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | INST +195 UNI -238 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +21 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -6.2 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -6.2 (-14.8) | 134.3 (+6.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -5.8 (-15.2) | 136.2 (+4.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -6.0 (-15.0) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -5.8 (-15.2) | 136.3 (+4.7) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | UNI 75 – 66 INST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNI 88 – 73 INST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNI 74 – 56 INST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | INST 94 – 72 UNI |
| Jan 7, 2024 | INST 77 – 66 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 62.5 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#206) | 6.8 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#273) | 0.61 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#271) | 0.73 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#290) | 0.542 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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