Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -400 INST +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +15 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -10.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -11.2 (+3.8) | 151.9 (+9.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -8.7 (+6.3) | 153.5 (+7.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -9.7 (+5.3) | 149.5 (+11.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -10.1 (+4.9) | 151.2 (+9.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UNI 81 – 60 INST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UNI 75 – 66 INST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNI 74 – 56 INST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | INST 94 – 72 UNI |
| Jan 7, 2024 | INST 77 – 66 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#101) | -3.1 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#107) | -0.26 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#110) | -0.42 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#90) | 0.488 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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