Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | INST +130 UNI -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +18 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -4.8 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (-32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -5.6 (-12.4) | 151.2 (-21.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -4.6 (-13.4) | 148.2 (-18.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -4.1 (-13.9) | 153.6 (-23.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -5.2 (-12.8) | 154.8 (-24.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UNI 81 – 60 INST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UNI 75 – 66 INST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNI 88 – 73 INST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | INST 94 – 72 UNI |
| Jan 7, 2024 | INST 77 – 66 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#235) | 3.8 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#222) | 0.41 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#219) | 0.47 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#228) | 0.520 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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