Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | UNI +126 INST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +11 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -4.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -3.4 (-7.6) | 156.3 (-13.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -3.5 (-7.5) | 154.5 (-11.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -2.9 (-8.1) | 156.5 (-13.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -2.3 (-8.7) | 156.8 (-13.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UNI 81 – 60 INST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UNI 75 – 66 INST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNI 88 – 73 INST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNI 74 – 56 INST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | INST 94 – 72 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | 12.4 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#142) | 2.13 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#134) | 2.52 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#140) | 0.593 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 60.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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