Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | FIU -102 NMSU -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -1.1 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -1.4 (+16.4) | 151.6 (+11.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | NMSU -1.4 (+16.4) | 149.1 (+13.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | NMSU -0.1 (+15.1) | 149.5 (+13.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -0.2 (+14.8) | 150.3 (+12.7) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | FIU 81 – 78 NMSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | NMSU 76 – 48 FIU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NMSU 59 – 52 FIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NMSU 77 – 70 FIU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | FIU 77 – 67 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#189) | 3.5 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#206) | 1.17 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#188) | 1.75 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#179) | 0.574 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 59.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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