Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | FIU +130 NMSU -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +7 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -1.6 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -3.6 (-3.4) | 140.7 (-29.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -3.3 (-3.7) | 142.9 (-31.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -3.1 (-3.9) | 143.4 (-32.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.6 (-4.4) | 142.5 (-31.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | FIU 81 – 78 NMSU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | FIU 89 – 74 NMSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | NMSU 76 – 48 FIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NMSU 77 – 70 FIU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | FIU 77 – 67 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#221) | 2.0 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#283) | 0.37 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#258) | 0.80 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#306) | 0.528 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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