Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | FIU -111 NMSU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | FIU -4.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -1.2 (+8.8) | 144.2 (-0.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -2.2 (+7.8) | 143.6 (+0.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -1.2 (+8.8) | 146.2 (-2.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -1.6 (+8.4) | 144.6 (-0.6) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | FIU 81 – 78 NMSU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | FIU 89 – 74 NMSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | NMSU 76 – 48 FIU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NMSU 59 – 52 FIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NMSU 77 – 70 FIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-12 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#276) | -6.1 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#310) | -0.92 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#296) | -0.92 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#310) | 0.460 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 39.0% |
Game Analysis
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