Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -285 FIU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +3 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -7.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -7.2 (-10.2) | 146.8 (+12.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -7.9 (-10.9) | 147.1 (+11.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -7.4 (-10.4) | 148.9 (+10.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -7.4 (-10.4) | 147.6 (+11.4) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | FIU 89 – 74 NMSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | NMSU 76 – 48 FIU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NMSU 59 – 52 FIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NMSU 77 – 70 FIU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | FIU 77 – 67 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#127) | -1.8 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#183) | -0.89 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#157) | -0.91 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#152) | 0.459 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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