Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -300 FIU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +28 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -7.6 (+20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -6.3 (+21.7) | 136.2 (-12.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -5.5 (+22.5) | 135.6 (-11.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -6.9 (+21.1) | 136.0 (-12.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -5.8 (+22.2) | 135.7 (-11.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | FIU 81 – 78 NMSU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | FIU 89 – 74 NMSU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NMSU 59 – 52 FIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NMSU 77 – 70 FIU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | FIU 77 – 67 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#176) | -5.3 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#174) | -1.40 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#165) | -1.52 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#189) | 0.411 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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