Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -150 FIU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -2.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -1.8 (+5.2) | 141.5 (+5.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -0.8 (+6.2) | 140.9 (+6.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -2.1 (+4.9) | 141.3 (+5.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.0 (+5.0) | 141.5 (+5.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | FIU 81 – 78 NMSU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | FIU 89 – 74 NMSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | NMSU 76 – 48 FIU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NMSU 59 – 52 FIU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | FIU 77 – 67 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#293) | -6.8 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#252) | -1.20 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#256) | -1.23 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#281) | 0.422 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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