Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TAR +205 UVU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +6 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | UVU -4.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -1.5 (-4.5) | 142.9 (+33.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -4.7 (-1.3) | 140.9 (+35.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -1.4 (-4.6) | 143.3 (+32.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -1.4 (-4.6) | 144.4 (+31.6) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVU 79 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVU 83 – 55 TAR |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UVU 71 – 66 TAR |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVU 81 – 56 TAR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UVU 63 – 60 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#139) | 10.2 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#86) | 1.57 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#101) | 2.51 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#81) | 0.608 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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