Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | TAR +230 UVU -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +5 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UVU -9.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -9.4 (+4.4) | 133.2 (+3.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -7.7 (+2.7) | 132.5 (+4.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -8.0 (+3.0) | 130.5 (+6.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -9.0 (+4.0) | 130.9 (+6.1) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVU 79 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVU 83 – 55 TAR |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UVU 91 – 85 TAR |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVU 81 – 56 TAR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UVU 63 – 60 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 15-1 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-0 |
| Away | 1-14 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.2 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#313) | 3.5 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#255) | 0.94 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#260) | 0.81 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#277) | 0.559 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 25.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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