Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | TAR +230 UVU -285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +28 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UVU -2.9 (-25.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -2.3 (-25.7) | 152.8 (-14.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -3.2 (-24.8) | 150.9 (-12.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -1.8 (-26.2) | 153.3 (-15.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -2.5 (-25.5) | 154.1 (-16.1) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVU 79 – 72 TAR |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UVU 91 – 85 TAR |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UVU 71 – 66 TAR |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVU 81 – 56 TAR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UVU 63 – 60 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#173) | 5.7 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#173) | 0.94 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#143) | 1.13 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#208) | 0.565 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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