Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -1600 UNF +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +19 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -18.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+28.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -14.3 (+4.7) | 150.9 (+34.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -12.7 (+6.3) | 154.9 (+30.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -14.5 (+4.5) | 150.8 (+34.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -14.8 (+4.2) | 146.9 (+38.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | APSU 77 – 76 UNF |
| Mar 3, 2025 | APSU 90 – 69 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2025 | APSU 97 – 89 UNF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | APSU 101 – 98 UNF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | APSU 95 – 91 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-1 | 5-8 |
| Away | 9-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 89.6 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#149) | -13.2 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#191) | -3.66 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#206) | -5.03 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#133) | 0.415 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 27.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 56.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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