Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -120 UNF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +4 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -3.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+45.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -0.6 (+3.4) | 143.4 (+42.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -1.5 (+2.5) | 143.3 (+42.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -1.7 (+2.3) | 146.1 (+39.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -1.8 (+2.2) | 145.7 (+40.3) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | APSU 77 – 76 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | APSU 102 – 83 UNF |
| Mar 3, 2025 | APSU 90 – 69 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2025 | APSU 97 – 89 UNF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | APSU 101 – 98 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#244) | -4.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#247) | -0.33 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#256) | -0.43 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#250) | 0.471 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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