Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | APSU +150 UNF -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -1.8 (+22.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -1.5 (+22.5) | 157.7 (+1.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -1.4 (+22.4) | 158.5 (+0.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -1.5 (+22.5) | 156.5 (+2.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -1.8 (+22.8) | 156.3 (+2.7) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | APSU 77 – 76 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | APSU 102 – 83 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2025 | APSU 97 – 89 UNF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | APSU 101 – 98 UNF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | APSU 95 – 91 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-13 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#281) | -5.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#268) | -0.60 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#268) | -0.78 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#249) | 0.487 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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