Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UNF -290 APSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +8 | 186 | Lost |
| Massey | UNF -10.3 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+37.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -6.0 (-14.0) | 148.2 (+37.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -6.3 (-14.3) | 149.4 (+36.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -6.3 (-14.3) | 147.3 (+38.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -6.5 (-14.5) | 148.0 (+38.0) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | APSU 77 – 76 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | APSU 102 – 83 UNF |
| Mar 3, 2025 | APSU 90 – 69 UNF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | APSU 101 – 98 UNF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | APSU 95 – 91 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#179) | -7.4 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#124) | -1.01 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#137) | -1.59 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#76) | 0.467 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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