Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -200 UNF +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +3 | 199 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -4.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+52.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -3.9 (-0.9) | 150.4 (+48.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -2.8 (+0.2) | 147.3 (+51.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -4.3 (-1.3) | 146.5 (+52.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -3.7 (-0.7) | 148.5 (+50.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | APSU 77 – 76 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | APSU 102 – 83 UNF |
| Mar 3, 2025 | APSU 90 – 69 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2025 | APSU 97 – 89 UNF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | APSU 95 – 91 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#232) | -4.9 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#199) | -0.60 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#213) | -0.68 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#164) | 0.461 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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