Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | UNF +525 APSU -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +1 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -11.9 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -12.1 (+11.1) | 156.4 (-3.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -9.6 (+8.6) | 156.6 (-3.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -12.1 (+11.1) | 157.1 (-4.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -11.1 (+10.1) | 157.9 (-4.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | APSU 102 – 83 UNF |
| Mar 3, 2025 | APSU 90 – 69 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2025 | APSU 97 – 89 UNF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | APSU 101 – 98 UNF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | APSU 95 – 91 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 5-8 | 12-1 |
| Away | 2-14 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 89.6 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#340) | 1.5 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#345) | 0.64 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.92 (#343) | 0.56 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#324) | 0.543 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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