Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UIC +205 MUR -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -7.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -6.9 (+2.9) | 157.5 (+0.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -8.2 (+4.2) | 151.6 (+6.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -8.0 (+4.0) | 151.1 (+6.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -8.8 (+4.8) | 154.2 (+3.8) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UIC 92 – 79 MUR |
| Feb 4, 2026 | MUR 81 – 74 UIC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MUR 63 – 53 UIC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UIC 97 – 93 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2024 | MUR 73 – 58 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#207) | 8.5 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#285) | 1.56 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#253) | 1.87 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#292) | 0.550 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 61.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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