Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -165 UIC +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +10 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -1.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -0.1 (+10.1) | 145.1 (-29.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -1.3 (+8.7) | 147.1 (-31.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -0.3 (+9.7) | 147.4 (-31.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -1.0 (+9.0) | 147.3 (-31.3) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UIC 92 – 79 MUR |
| Feb 4, 2026 | MUR 81 – 74 UIC |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MUR 81 – 77 UIC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UIC 97 – 93 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2024 | MUR 73 – 58 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#153) | 1.9 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#162) | 0.52 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#159) | 0.63 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#163) | 0.533 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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