Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -105 UIC -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +13 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -0.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -0.7 (-12.3) | 149.1 (+21.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -1.1 (-11.9) | 148.5 (+22.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -0.6 (-12.4) | 148.8 (+22.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -0.7 (-12.3) | 150.2 (+20.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | MUR 81 – 74 UIC |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MUR 81 – 77 UIC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MUR 63 – 53 UIC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UIC 97 – 93 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2024 | MUR 73 – 58 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#108) | 3.8 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#107) | 0.07 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#122) | 0.23 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#93) | 0.516 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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