Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -298 UIC +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -7.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -5.2 (+1.8) | 153.5 (+1.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -5.2 (+1.8) | 151.3 (+3.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -5.6 (+1.4) | 150.4 (+4.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -5.8 (+1.2) | 152.3 (+2.7) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UIC 92 – 79 MUR |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MUR 81 – 77 UIC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MUR 63 – 53 UIC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UIC 97 – 93 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2024 | MUR 73 – 58 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#91) | 2.2 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#89) | 0.04 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#99) | 0.15 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#80) | 0.511 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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