Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | L-MD +100 LAF -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +15 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | L-MD -1.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -0.8 (-15.8) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -0.6 (-15.6) | 146.2 (-3.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -0.1 (-15.1) | 148.9 (-5.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -0.1 (-15.1) | 146.9 (-3.9) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | L-MD 68 – 54 LAF |
| Feb 6, 2025 | L-MD 71 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LAF 80 – 59 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2024 | L-MD 79 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 25, 2024 | LAF 70 – 44 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-10 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#341) | -11.4 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.34 (#349) | -3.21 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.46 (#351) | -4.05 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.348 (#356) | 0.333 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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