Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -210 L-MD +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +13 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -4.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -3.7 (-16.7) | 138.7 (-9.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -4.5 (-17.5) | 137.4 (-8.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -3.6 (-16.6) | 138.1 (-9.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -3.7 (-16.7) | 138.6 (-9.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | L-MD 68 – 54 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LAF 79 – 64 L-MD |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LAF 80 – 59 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2024 | L-MD 79 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 25, 2024 | LAF 70 – 44 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-14 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#287) | -9.1 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#301) | -1.44 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#286) | -1.87 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#295) | 0.429 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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