Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -162 L-MD +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +14 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -4.1 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-28.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -2.7 (-16.7) | 142.8 (-20.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -2.2 (-16.2) | 140.9 (-18.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -2.6 (-16.6) | 141.7 (-19.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.4 (-16.4) | 142.1 (-20.1) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | LAF 79 – 64 L-MD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | L-MD 71 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LAF 80 – 59 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2024 | L-MD 79 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 25, 2024 | LAF 70 – 44 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-10 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#309) | -11.3 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#329) | -2.15 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#333) | -2.76 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#328) | 0.407 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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