Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -120 LAF +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +21 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | L-MD -3.3 (-24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -2.6 (-23.6) | 138.1 (+0.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -2.1 (-23.1) | 139.1 (-0.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -2.5 (-23.5) | 140.0 (-1.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -1.8 (-22.8) | 139.7 (-0.7) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | L-MD 68 – 54 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LAF 79 – 64 L-MD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | L-MD 71 – 58 LAF |
| Feb 15, 2024 | L-MD 79 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 25, 2024 | LAF 70 – 44 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#283) | -7.2 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#264) | -1.64 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#272) | -1.79 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#276) | 0.409 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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