Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -455 L-MD +345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +15 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -9.3 (-24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -7.2 (-22.2) | 130.1 (+12.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -5.9 (-20.9) | 132.5 (+10.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -6.9 (-21.9) | 130.0 (+13.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -6.9 (-21.9) | 129.1 (+13.9) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | L-MD 68 – 54 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LAF 79 – 64 L-MD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | L-MD 71 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LAF 80 – 59 L-MD |
| Jan 25, 2024 | LAF 70 – 44 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-10 | 2-11 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#295) | -13.4 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#306) | -2.96 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#308) | -3.85 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#271) | 0.373 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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