Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | LR -105 TNST -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -4.8 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -4.2 (-0.8) | 143.3 (+19.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -3.7 (-1.3) | 141.5 (+21.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -3.8 (-1.2) | 141.3 (+21.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -3.8 (-1.2) | 142.9 (+20.1) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | TNST 70 – 63 LR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TNST 72 – 70 LR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TNST 95 – 86 LR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LR 85 – 60 TNST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | TNST 90 – 82 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-13 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#332) | -3.3 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#310) | 0.20 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#307) | -0.31 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#338) | 0.514 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 36.1% |
Game Analysis
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