Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -125 LR +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +9 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | LR -3.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+41.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -4.3 (+13.3) | 142.6 (+38.4) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -2.0 (+11.0) | 141.3 (+39.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -3.9 (+12.9) | 135.4 (+45.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -3.6 (+12.6) | 135.9 (+45.1) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | TNST 70 – 63 LR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TNST 84 – 79 LR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TNST 72 – 70 LR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LR 85 – 60 TNST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | TNST 90 – 82 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#333) | -3.4 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.37 (#354) | 0.30 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.00 (#352) | 0.08 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.322 (#364) | 0.513 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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