Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -225 LR +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -9.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -6.2 (+0.8) | 147.6 (-14.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -6.4 (+0.6) | 147.5 (-14.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -6.6 (+0.4) | 147.7 (-14.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -6.5 (+0.5) | 147.8 (-14.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TNST 84 – 79 LR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TNST 72 – 70 LR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TNST 95 – 86 LR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LR 85 – 60 TNST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | TNST 90 – 82 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 10-7 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#224) | -9.9 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#177) | -1.05 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#214) | -1.56 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#143) | 0.443 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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