Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | LR -333 TNST +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +25 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | LR -6.4 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -4.9 (+20.1) | 142.9 (+2.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -5.7 (+19.3) | 143.7 (+1.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -5.1 (+19.9) | 144.2 (+0.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -5.2 (+19.8) | 144.0 (+1.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | TNST 70 – 63 LR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TNST 84 – 79 LR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TNST 72 – 70 LR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TNST 95 – 86 LR |
| Dec 30, 2023 | TNST 90 – 82 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#222) | -6.2 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#231) | -0.72 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#232) | -1.02 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#240) | 0.483 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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