Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | LR -360 TNST +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LR -7.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -5.7 (-7.7) | 142.2 (-0.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -5.8 (-7.8) | 139.4 (+2.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -6.3 (-8.3) | 141.8 (+0.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -6.2 (-8.2) | 142.3 (-0.3) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | TNST 70 – 63 LR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TNST 84 – 79 LR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TNST 95 – 86 LR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LR 85 – 60 TNST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | TNST 90 – 82 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#211) | -7.3 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#195) | -1.73 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#210) | -2.15 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#192) | 0.410 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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