Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -138 LR +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +8 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -4.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -2.4 (+5.6) | 156.5 (+15.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -3.2 (+4.8) | 154.6 (+17.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.1 (+5.9) | 154.5 (+17.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.1 (+5.9) | 154.1 (+17.9) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | TNST 70 – 63 LR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TNST 84 – 79 LR |
| Jan 31, 2025 | TNST 72 – 70 LR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TNST 95 – 86 LR |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LR 85 – 60 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#258) | -5.1 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#272) | -1.02 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#258) | -1.29 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#281) | 0.417 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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