Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -265 VT +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +3 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -4.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -5.2 (-2.2) | 153.0 (+6.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -3.3 (-0.3) | 148.4 (+10.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -2.8 (+0.2) | 150.8 (+8.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -3.1 (-0.1) | 152.5 (+6.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | WAKE 95 – 89 VT |
| Feb 21, 2026 | VT 82 – 63 WAKE |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WAKE 72 – 63 VT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VT 87 – 76 WAKE |
| Dec 30, 2023 | WAKE 86 – 63 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#62) | 9.4 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#82) | 2.51 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#84) | 3.14 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#87) | 0.626 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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