Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -190 VT +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +23 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -3.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -2.3 (+20.7) | 141.1 (+7.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -2.8 (+20.2) | 140.8 (+8.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -2.5 (+20.5) | 141.9 (+7.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -2.7 (+20.3) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | WAKE 95 – 89 VT |
| Feb 21, 2026 | VT 82 – 63 WAKE |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WAKE 81 – 78 VT |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WAKE 72 – 63 VT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VT 87 – 76 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 17-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#62) | 9.2 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#104) | 1.96 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#89) | 2.54 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#95) | 0.582 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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