Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | VT +145 WAKE -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +9 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -1.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -3.5 (-5.5) | 137.2 (-2.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -1.9 (-7.1) | 136.2 (-1.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -3.1 (-5.9) | 136.1 (-1.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -2.7 (-6.3) | 136.4 (-1.4) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | WAKE 95 – 89 VT |
| Feb 21, 2026 | VT 82 – 63 WAKE |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WAKE 81 – 78 VT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VT 87 – 76 WAKE |
| Dec 30, 2023 | WAKE 86 – 63 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#160) | 5.6 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#181) | 2.18 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#191) | 2.63 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#196) | 0.578 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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