Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | VT -115 WAKE -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -0.8 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -0.8 (+10.2) | 145.2 (+17.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -1.0 (+10.0) | 148.3 (+14.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -0.8 (+10.2) | 148.3 (+14.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -1.2 (+9.8) | 148.2 (+14.8) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | WAKE 95 – 89 VT |
| Feb 21, 2026 | VT 82 – 63 WAKE |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WAKE 81 – 78 VT |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WAKE 72 – 63 VT |
| Dec 30, 2023 | WAKE 86 – 63 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#58) | 13.5 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#71) | 1.71 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#64) | 2.27 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#89) | 0.563 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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