They were all in love with dying, they we're doing it in Texas. "Pepper" - Butthole Surfers
Atlantic Coast Conference · Cassell Coliseum · February 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread VT -3.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money VT -185 / WAKE +154
Model Predictions
Spread Total VT win
Actual VT +19 145 Won
Massey VT -2.9 (+16.1)
Massey Totals 156.5 (-11.5)
Bradley-Terry 72%
Weighted B-T 78%
Efficiency Plus ML VT -2.8 (+16.2) 152.8 (-7.8) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML VT -3.8 (+15.2) 148.7 (-3.7) 69%
Baseline ML VT -3.6 (+15.4) 149.3 (-4.3) 72%
Baseline Plus ML VT -4.1 (+14.9) 151.8 (-6.8) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 10, 2026 WAKE 9589 VT
Jan 3, 2026 WAKE 8178 VT
Jan 18, 2025 WAKE 7263 VT
Mar 2, 2024 VT 8776 WAKE
Dec 30, 2023 WAKE 8663 VT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VT WAKE
Overall 19-13 18-17
Conference 8-10 7-11
Home 14-3 13-7
Away 3-7 2-7
Neutral 2-3 3-3
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 78.8 78.8
Avg Pts Against 74.9 76.9
Massey 10.2 (#55) 10.2 (#54)
Bradley-Terry 1.93 (#53) 1.48 (#67)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.51 (#52) 1.79 (#74)
RPI 0.581 (#48) 0.554 (#73)
Shooting & Four Factors VT WAKE
FG% 45.1% 45.4%
3PT% 35.5% 34.4%
REB / G 35.0 32.8
OREB / G 10.9 10.0
AST / TO 1.35 1.30
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.1% 53.1%
TOV% 15.0% 15.7%
ORB% 31.3% 29.6%
FT Rate 25.7% 27.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 19.3%
DRB% 67.7% 67.2%
Opp FT Rate 20.3% 27.4%

Game Analysis

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