Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | VT -185 WAKE +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +19 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | VT -2.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -4.1 (+14.9) | 151.8 (-6.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -2.8 (+16.2) | 152.8 (-7.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -3.8 (+15.2) | 148.7 (-3.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -3.6 (+15.4) | 149.3 (-4.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | WAKE 95 – 89 VT |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WAKE 81 – 78 VT |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WAKE 72 – 63 VT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VT 87 – 76 WAKE |
| Dec 30, 2023 | WAKE 86 – 63 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#55) | 10.2 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#53) | 1.48 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#52) | 1.79 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#48) | 0.554 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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