Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | CARK -700 STET +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +20 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -16.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -11.8 (+8.2) | 141.1 (+24.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -9.9 (+10.1) | 143.8 (+22.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -10.3 (+9.7) | 138.3 (+27.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -11.6 (+8.4) | 140.1 (+25.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CARK 88 – 76 STET |
| Mar 3, 2025 | CARK 77 – 72 STET |
| Jan 10, 2025 | STET 75 – 65 CARK |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STET 73 – 62 CARK |
| Feb 4, 2023 | STET 99 – 80 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 79.9 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#209) | -14.9 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#263) | -1.49 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#262) | -2.02 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#245) | 0.426 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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