Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | STET -125 CARK +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | STET -3.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -0.4 (+9.6) | 150.2 (-10.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -1.8 (+8.2) | 152.4 (-12.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -0.9 (+9.1) | 146.5 (-6.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -0.6 (+9.4) | 148.6 (-8.6) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CARK 88 – 76 STET |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CARK 93 – 73 STET |
| Mar 3, 2025 | CARK 77 – 72 STET |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STET 73 – 62 CARK |
| Feb 4, 2023 | STET 99 – 80 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#347) | -11.9 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.29 (#355) | -2.53 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.07 (#354) | -3.00 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#344) | 0.372 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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