Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | STET +370 CARK -485 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +12 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | CARK -9.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -8.4 (-3.6) | 147.5 (+16.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -7.7 (-4.3) | 150.0 (+14.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -7.6 (-4.4) | 145.7 (+18.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -7.7 (-4.3) | 147.4 (+16.6) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | CARK 93 – 73 STET |
| Mar 3, 2025 | CARK 77 – 72 STET |
| Jan 10, 2025 | STET 75 – 65 CARK |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STET 73 – 62 CARK |
| Feb 4, 2023 | STET 99 – 80 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-14 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#330) | -0.2 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#313) | -0.18 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#306) | -0.34 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#332) | 0.517 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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