Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | STET -450 CARK +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +19 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | STET -13.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -11.9 (+7.1) | 156.5 (+22.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -10.2 (+8.8) | 154.5 (+24.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -10.8 (+8.2) | 156.0 (+23.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -11.2 (+7.8) | 156.5 (+22.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CARK 88 – 76 STET |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CARK 93 – 73 STET |
| Mar 3, 2025 | CARK 77 – 72 STET |
| Jan 10, 2025 | STET 75 – 65 CARK |
| Feb 3, 2024 | STET 73 – 62 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 7-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 82.4 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#170) | -10.4 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#141) | -1.13 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#140) | -1.83 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#114) | 0.449 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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